{"id":10157,"date":"2026-01-09T17:04:22","date_gmt":"2026-01-09T12:04:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pivot.uz\/?p=10157"},"modified":"2026-01-09T17:08:34","modified_gmt":"2026-01-09T12:08:34","slug":"toshkentdagi-uy-narxlari-pufak-bubble-qachon-yoriladi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pivot.uz\/uz\/toshkentdagi-uy-narxlari-pufak-bubble-qachon-yoriladi\/","title":{"rendered":"Toshkentdagi uy narxlari: Pufak (Bubble) qachon yoriladi?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So\u2018nggi 3 yilda Toshkentda ko\u2018chmas mulk narxlari o\u2018rtacha 2-3 barobarga oshdi. Markazda $1500-2000\/m\u00b2 narxlar odatiy holga aylanib qoldi. O\u2018rtacha maosh va uy narxlari o\u2018rtasidagi jarlik kengayib bormoqda. Ko\u2018pchilik buni &laquo;Pufak&raquo; (Bubble) deb atamoqda va u qachondir portlashini kutmoqda. Xo\u2018sh, bu haqiqatan ham pufakmi yoki Toshkent &laquo;Megapolis narxlari&raquo;ga o\u2018tyaptimi?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>&laquo;Beton oltin&raquo; mentaliteti<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">O\u2018zbekistonda ko\u2018chmas mulk bozori \u2014 bu shunchaki yashash joyi emas, bu \u2014 asosiy investitsiya vositasidir. Amerikalik pulini aksiyalarda (S&amp;P 500), yevropalik obligatsiyalarda saqlasa, o\u2018zbekistonlik pulini &laquo;beton&raquo;da saqlaydi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Sabab:<\/strong> Fond bozori rivojlanmagan, bank omonatlari inflyatsiyadan birozgina yuqori, biznes qilish esa riskli. Uy esa \u2014 &laquo;yemaydi, ichmaydi&raquo;, narxi esa (tarixan) faqat oshadi. Bu mentalitet sun&#8217;iy talabni \u2014 spekulyativ talabni yaratdi. Odamlar yashash uchun emas, pulini saqlab qolish uchun 2-3 ta kvartira sotib olib, &laquo;qora suvoq&raquo; (korobka) holatida bo\u2018sh qoldirmoqda.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Bozor qizib ketdi: Ipoteka va Urbanizatsiya<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Narxlarning keskin oshishiga ikkita fundamental omil sabab bo\u2018ldi:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Ipoteka inqilobi:<\/strong> So\u2018nggi yillarda davlat ipoteka dasturlarini kengaytirdi. Bozorga &laquo;arzon va uzoq muddatli&raquo; pullar kirdi. Bu esa talabni keskin oshirib yubordi.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Toshkentga intilish:<\/strong> Urbanizatsiya jarayoni tezlashdi. Hamma poytaxtga intilmoqda. Yer esa \u2014 cheklangan resurs. Markazda bo\u2018sh yer qolmagani sari, narxlar osmonga o\u2018rlamoqda.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Pufak alomatlari bormi?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Iqtisodiyotda &laquo;ko\u2018chmas mulk pufagi&raquo;ning aniq belgilari bor. Keling, Toshkentni tekshirib ko\u2018ramiz:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Narx va Ijara nisbati (Price-to-Rent Ratio):<\/strong> Sog\u2018lom bozorda kvartira o\u2018zini ijaradan 10-12 yilda qoplab ketishi kerak. Hozirgi narxlar bilan Toshkentda bu ko\u2018rsatkich <strong>15-20 yilga<\/strong> cho\u2018zilib ketdi. Bu \u2014 aktivning haddan tashqari qimmat baholanganini bildiradi.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Bo\u2018sh uylar sindromi:<\/strong> Kechqurun yangi qurilgan &laquo;Novostroyka&raquo;larga qarang. Derazalarning 60-70 foizida chiroq yonmaydi. Uylar sotilgan, lekin hech kim yashamaydi. Bu \u2014 spekulyativ pufakning klassik belgisi.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>&laquo;Qulash&raquo; bo\u2018ladimi yoki &laquo;Turg\u2018unlik&raquo;?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ko\u2018pchilik 2008-yilgi AQSH inqirozi kabi narxlar &laquo;g\u2018archillab&raquo; tushib ketishini kutyapti. Ammo ekspertlar boshqacha ssenariyni \u2014 <strong>&laquo;Soft Landing&raquo; (Yumshoq qo\u2018nish)<\/strong> yoki <strong>Stagnatsiya<\/strong>ni prognoz qilmoqda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nega narxlar keskin qulamasligi mumkin?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Tannarx oshishi:<\/strong> Sement, armatura, ishchi kuchi va energetika narxlari oshib bormoqda. Quruvchi o\u2018z tannarxidan pastga sota olmaydi.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Demografiya:<\/strong> Aholi soni har yili 700-800 mingga ko\u2018paymoqda. Bu har yili yangi uy-joyga bo\u2018lgan real ehtiyoj degani.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Lekin narxlar o\u2018sishi to\u2018xtaydi. Ikkilamchi bozorda (eski uylar) va shahar chekkasidagi yangi uylarda <strong>narxlar korreksiyasi (10-15% pasayish)<\/strong> boshlanishi mumkin. Chunki xalqning to\u2018lov qobiliyati o\u2018z shiftiga yetib bo\u2018ldi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>2026-yil uchun prognoz: Xaridor bozori<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hozirgacha bozorda &laquo;Sotuvchi qirol&raquo; edi (xohlagan narxini qo\u2018yardi). 2026-yildan boshlab vaziyat &laquo;Xaridor bozori&raquo;ga o\u2018zgarishi kutilmoqda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Quruvchilar naqd pulga muhtoj bo\u2018lib, turli chegirmalar, 5 yillik foizsiz bo\u2018lib to\u2018lashlar va bonuslar taklif qila boshlaydi.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ijara narxlari (relokantlar oqimi pasaygani hisobiga) tushishda davom etadi. Bu esa uyni investitsiya sifatida jozibasiz qiladi.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Kim yutqazadi?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Agar siz uyni <strong>yashash uchun<\/strong> olmoqchi bo\u2018lsangiz \u2014 hoziroq, lekin yaxshilab savdolashib olish (ayniqsa tayyor, ta\u2019mirlanganini) maqul. Agar siz uyni <strong>qisqa muddatda foyda ko\u2018rish uchun<\/strong> (kotlovan bosqichida olib, bitganda sotish) olmoqchi bo\u2018lsangiz \u2014 ehtiyot bo\u2018ling. Bu poyezd allaqachon ketib bo\u2018ldi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&laquo;Pufak&raquo; yorilmasligi mumkin, lekin u sekin-asta havosi chiqib, &laquo;quruq beton&raquo;ga aylanib qolish xavfi bor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>So\u2018nggi 3 yilda Toshkentda ko\u2018chmas mulk narxlari o\u2018rtacha 2-3 barobarga oshdi. Markazda $1500-2000\/m\u00b2 narxlar odatiy holga aylanib qoldi. O\u2018rtacha maosh va uy narxlari o\u2018rtasidagi jarlik kengayib bormoqda. Ko\u2018pchilik buni &laquo;Pufak&raquo; (Bubble) deb atamoqda va u qachondir portlashini kutmoqda. Xo\u2018sh, bu haqiqatan ham pufakmi yoki Toshkent &laquo;Megapolis narxlari&raquo;ga o\u2018tyaptimi? &laquo;Beton oltin&raquo; mentaliteti O\u2018zbekistonda ko\u2018chmas mulk bozori [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10155,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"format":"standard"},"jnews_primary_category":[],"jnews_override_bookmark_settings":[],"jnews_paywall_metabox":[],"jnews_override_counter":[],"jnews_podcast_option":[],"jnews_podcast_series":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[387],"tags":[],"jnews-series":[],"class_list":["post-10157","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-maqolalar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/pivot.uz\/uz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10157","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/pivot.uz\/uz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/pivot.uz\/uz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pivot.uz\/uz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pivot.uz\/uz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10157"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/pivot.uz\/uz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10157\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10158,"href":"https:\/\/pivot.uz\/uz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10157\/revisions\/10158"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pivot.uz\/uz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10155"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/pivot.uz\/uz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10157"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pivot.uz\/uz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10157"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pivot.uz\/uz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10157"},{"taxonomy":"jnews-series","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pivot.uz\/uz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/jnews-series?post=10157"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}