By 2040, the population of Central Asia could reach 96 million. This demographic surge will place immense pressure on infrastructure, necessitating a technological leap in energy efficiency, water management, and transport systems. Nikolai Podguzov, Chairman of the Management Board of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), shared these insights in an interview with TASS.
“According to our estimates, the population of Central Asia could reach 96 million by 2040. While this should serve as a powerful economic driver, such a scale also imposes a massive burden on infrastructure. For sustainable development, the region requires a breakthrough in energy efficiency, modern mobility, and water resource management,” stated the head of the EDB.
Podguzov described the region as “one of the most vulnerable in the world to climate change.” He noted that water shortages are expected to intensify, with the annual deficit potentially reaching 5 to 12 cubic kilometers by 2028.
According to the EDB head, a significant portion of water resources in the region is lost due to outdated infrastructure. The bank is currently actively financing projects to modernize irrigation systems, develop water-saving technologies, and implement digital water accounting across Central Asia.
Geographic factors also play a critical role in the region’s development. Central Asia is situated more than 3,000 kilometers away from ocean ports.
“This distance inflates trade costs by 20–40%, causing the economy to lose up to 1.5 percentage points of growth annually. This is essentially a ‘distance tax,’” Podguzov explained. He believes the only solution is to enhance transport connectivity. To this end, the EDB has proposed the “Eurasian Transport Framework”—a network of corridors designed to reduce logistics costs and accelerate trade flows.
“Currently, transport routes primarily run East-to-West. However, the ‘North-South’ axis and the potential Trans-Afghan corridor are equally vital. They will open markets in South Asia and the Persian Gulf to the region,” he added.
Central Asia remains one of the world’s fastest-growing regions. EDB projections suggest that the combined GDP of the five regional nations could reach $600 billion by 2026. However, to maintain this momentum, the region must effectively address three interconnected challenges: demography, transport, and water security.
Note: The EDB is an international financial institution focused on investment activity in Eurasia. Its members include Russia, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. In 2025, Uzbekistan officially joined the bank.
