According to the World Bank, Uzbekistan’s economy is expected to grow by 6% in 2024. The forecast for 2025 is 5.8%, and for 2026, 5.9%, making it one of the highest growth rates in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region.
The World Bank has published its latest report, “Global Economic Prospects,” which analyzes trends, forecasts, and risks for the global economy and individual regions, including the ECA countries.
According to World Bank economists, Uzbekistan’s GDP is projected to grow by 6% in 2024. The organization forecasts a 5.8% growth for 2025 and 5.9% for 2026. These projections align with the bank’s previous forecasts made in October.
It is worth noting that the Uzbek government estimates a 6.5% economic growth in 2024, with the country’s GDP reaching $115 billion. The projected GDP growth for 2025 is 6%, with inflation expected to decline to 7–8%.
Trends in the ECA Region
The World Bank reports that economic growth in the ECA region slowed to 3.2% in 2024. This deceleration is primarily due to weaker economic growth in Russia and Turkey.
Additionally, the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine continues to have a negative impact on economic activity in the region.
The process of inflation deceleration in the ECA region has stalled, with overall inflation levels remaining high. Core inflation is twice as high as pre-pandemic levels.
Although declining commodity prices have eased the situation somewhat, high wage pressures due to labor market tightness, particularly in the services sector, persist.
Remittances and Consumption Levels
Despite a slowdown in remittance flows caused by the war in Russia and Ukraine, remittances in some South Caucasus countries remain above pre-war levels. In Central Asia, particularly in Tajikistan, remittance volumes remain stable, supporting household consumption.
Forecasts
The World Bank forecasts that economic growth in the ECA region will slow to 2.5% in 2025, before increasing to 2.7% in 2026.
Excluding Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine, growth rates in the region are expected to reach 3.3% in 2025–2026.
Inflation is expected to gradually decline due to falling commodity prices and easing labor market pressures. Public debt is projected to rise in half of the ECA countries in 2025.
Risks
The risk assessment suggests the potential for slower economic growth. According to experts, global uncertainty regarding economic policies remains high. The introduction of additional trade restrictions by certain countries could further exacerbate the situation in global trade and negatively affect the ECA region’s economic performance.
Military spending has increased in all ECA countries. Further escalation of the conflict caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could lead to a significant worsening of the regional situation.
Lower-than-expected growth rates in Russia could severely impact Central Asian and South Caucasus countries, particularly through a decline in remittance flows.
Furthermore, the pace of inflation reduction may slow down, and prolonged high interest rates could constrain economic growth.
Climate risks, such as increased exposure to extreme weather events like droughts and floods, also remain a serious challenge for the region.
