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Uzbekistan faces risks — but they are manageable, and the changes are irreversible

by Pivot
October 16, 2025
in Articles
Reading Time: 4 mins read
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Uzbekistan faces risks — but they are manageable, and the changes are irreversible
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Bloomberg published an unusually in-depth feature on Uzbekistan — a long, data-driven analysis rather than the brief news updates the outlet usually offers. The piece was primarily written for international investors, explaining what kind of reforms are taking place in Uzbekistan and what opportunities are emerging. Yet for those of us living through these transformations, the article carries a deeper meaning: the country has begun to reimagine itself.

Uzbekistan on the new economic map

According to Bloomberg, Uzbekistan is attracting the largest wave of foreign investment in its history. Foreign direct investment (FDI) is expected to reach $42 billion in 2025, up from $11.9 billion in 2024 — a figure that marks the nation’s emergence from economic isolation into the global capital markets.

Some of the world’s largest financial institutions are confirming this shift: Citibank, JPMorgan, Franklin Templeton, and ACWA Power have all opened offices in Tashkent. Saudi Arabia’s ACWA Power is implementing $15 billion worth of renewable-energy projects in Uzbekistan — its biggest market outside the Kingdom. Meanwhile, a new generation of companies — TBC Bank, Uzum, and Payme — is turning fintech into one of the country’s main growth engines.

Korzinka: from fear to growth

At the heart of the Bloomberg story lies the transformation of Zafar Khashimov and his retail chain Korzinka — a symbol of the broader change sweeping the country. Between 1996 and 2006, Korzinka opened only 18 stores. The reason was simple: rapid expansion once seemed “dangerous,” and too much success risked drawing unwanted attention.

That mindset shifted entirely after the 2016 political and economic reforms.
Currency liberalization, fewer business restrictions, and open capital movement changed the rules of the game.
In the past nine years, Korzinka has opened more than 170 new stores and recently launched Central Asia’s largest food-distribution center. This expansion was made possible by $100 million in foreign investment — an achievement that would have been nearly impossible before the 2017 currency reform.

“We used to fear growing too fast. Now we see enormous opportunities here,” Khashimov told Bloomberg.

From a closed system to an open economy

According to Bloomberg, the turning point came in 2016, when President Shavkat Mirziyoyev took office. He liberalized the exchange rate, opened the country to trade and investment, and normalized diplomatic ties with neighboring states.

The political shift provided a powerful boost to economic growth. Since 2020, Uzbekistan’s economy has doubled, surpassing $100 billion in GDP. Key drivers include gold exports, energy projects, and — increasingly — the fintech sector. Bloomberg notes that Uzbekistan is now viewed not merely as a regional player but as a new destination for global capital flows.

Risks remain, but they are being managed

The article is clear-eyed about challenges: Uzbekistan remains a “frontier market” — a developing economy with high growth potential but not yet full stability. Even so, international rating agencies are taking notice. S&P Global Ratings this year upgraded the country’s outlook from “stable” to “positive.”

As JPMorgan strategist Zsolt Papp put it, current market prices already reflect investors’ optimism about Uzbekistan’s reforms — the key question is whether these expectations can be realized.

Bloomberg’s conclusion is straightforward: risks exist, but they are manageable. For investors, that is the most important signal — the system no longer hides its weaknesses; it is learning how to address and control them.

A new generation and a new mindset

Bloomberg also highlights how the transformation extends beyond economics to governance and culture.
Figures such as Mansurjon Rasulev, head of the Investment Promotion Agency, and Nozima Davletova, aide to the president’s administration, represent a new cohort of officials. They embody a culture of openness, accountability, and gender equality emerging within the state apparatus.

“In the past, women were seen as unnecessary. Now we are changing the laws,” Davletova told Bloomberg.

This shift in mentality signals not only economic reform but also social modernization.

Bloomberg’s verdict: the changes are irreversible

The feature closes with a remark from Zafar Khashimov that encapsulates the nation’s current spirit:

“There are risks in Uzbekistan, but they are manageable. More importantly, the changes are irreversible.”

Those words summarize the essence of today’s Uzbekistan — a country moving from fear to confidence, from a closed system to an open economy, and from constrained business to global expansion. Uzbekistan now stands on the global economic map as a nation still facing risks, yet capable of managing them. And in any investment landscape, that ability to manage uncertainty is the ultimate foundation of trust.

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