World Bank raises Uzbekistan’s economic growth forecast

Investment, remittances, and emerging sectors are driving stronger growth

The World Bank has revised its forecast for Uzbekistan’s economy upward — projecting 6.2% GDP growth in 2025, compared to the 5.9% forecast made in June. The more optimistic outlook is linked to a rise in remittance inflows, as well as growing public and private investment.

Uzbekistan among the fastest-growing economies in Central Asia

According to the World Bank’s report, “Europe and Central Asia Economic Update: Jobs and Prosperity,” Uzbekistan is expected to be among the top five fastest-growing economies in the region in 2025.

Central Asia continues to lead the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region in GDP growth for the third consecutive year, with an average forecast of 5.9% in 2025. This expansion is being driven by increased oil production in Kazakhstan, as well as rising remittance inflows to Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, coupled with stronger public and private investment across the subregion.

In the first half of 2025 alone, remittance inflows to Uzbekistan increased by 27% compared to the same period last year, reaching $8.2 billion.

2026 and beyond: steady but slower pace

Growth across Central Asia is projected to slow to around 5% in 2026, yet the subregion is still expected to outperform the rest of the ECA economies, including Central and Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus, the Western Balkans, as well as Russia and Turkey.

Uzbekistan’s GDP is projected to grow by 6% in 2026, maintaining its position among the region’s top-performing economies.

Kyrgyzstan is forecast to lead the region with 9.2% growth in 2025 and 6.5% in 2026, followed by Tajikistan (7.6% and 5.2%), Georgia (7% and 5.5%), and Kazakhstan (5.5% and 4.5%).

Uzbekistan’s strategic sectors: chemicals, ICT, and agro-industry

The World Bank report highlights three priority sectors that could drive Uzbekistan’s next phase of growth:

1. Chemical industry — improving competitiveness and energy efficiency, modernizing production, separating regulatory and commercial functions, and gradually removing subsidies, price caps, and export restrictions.
2. Information and communication technology (ICT) — expanding broadband internet coverage and improving digital infrastructure to unlock productivity gains.
3. Fruit and vegetable production — introducing international quality standards and certification, easing prepayment requirements for exports, attracting investment into modern irrigation systems, and supporting agricultural research and innovation.

Advancements in these sectors are expected to boost exports, create jobs, and enhance value-added production chains, strengthening the overall resilience of Uzbekistan’s economy.

Regional context: resilience amid uncertainty

Despite global and regional challenges, the World Bank notes that the Europe and Central Asia region (22 countries) continues to show signs of economic resilience.

Regional GDP growth is expected to slow to 2.4% in 2025 (down from 3.7% in 2024), largely due to slower expansion in Russia. Excluding Russia — which accounts for about 40% of the region’s total output — growth remains stable at around 3.3% this year and next.

Looking ahead, ECA growth is expected to average 2.6% in 2026–2027. Russia’s economy may slow to 0.8% growth in 2026 before slightly recovering to 1% in 2027, while Turkey’s economy is projected to strengthen to 4.4% growth by 2027.

Growth in the region will continue to be supported by private consumption, rising wages, higher remittances, social payments, infrastructure investment, and the gradual recovery of international trade.

However, significant risks remain — particularly the slow pace of structural reforms, geopolitical uncertainty, and persistent inflationary pressures, all of which could limit productivity gains and economic recovery.

Uzbekistan at the threshold of a new stage

The World Bank’s updated forecast reflects growing confidence in Uzbekistan’s economic trajectory. It signals the country’s strengthening investment climate, improved macroeconomic management, and active private sector participation.

To sustain and accelerate growth, Uzbekistan will need to deepen structural reforms, liberalize technology-driven sectors, and enhance industrial productivity — shifting the foundation of economic expansion from resource dependence to innovation and human capital.

Key figures at a glance

Key takeaway

Uzbekistan’s economy is not only growing — it is evolving in quality and structure. The country’s next leap will depend on how effectively it transforms human capital, technology, and reform momentum into long-term sustainable prosperity.

Source